5 Reasons Why Captain America: Brave New World Might Be In Trouble At The Box Office – SlashFilm

It may have taken a month and a half, but 2025 just experienced its first true blockbuster weekend at the box office. Thanks to the combination of Valentine’s Day and President’s Day, Marvel Studios’ “Captain America: Brave New World” had itself a damn fine opening. It ultimately pulled in $88.5 million over the weekend domestically, and its stateside total should easily exceed $100 million once the Monday holiday is factored in. That’s also in spite of competition from the family-friendly “Paddington in Peru,” which debuted with $13 million.

Overseas, director Julius Onah’s contribution to the Marvel Cinematic Universe brought in $92.4 million for a $180.9 million global start. In terms of post-“Endgame” entries, “Brave New World” opened better than “The Marvels” ($46.1 million), “Eternals” ($71.2 million), “Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings” ($75.3 million), and “Black Widow” ($80.3 million). Unfortunately, none of those movies were outright hits, although “Shang-Chi” was certainly a qualified success grading on the COVID-19 curve. That, in turn, leaves us in uncertain territory.

Basically, “Brave New World” marked a “good but not great” start to Anthony Mackie’s run as our new Captain America on the big screen. For the $180 million production, the weeks ahead are going to determine this movie’s fate. Sad to say, we have reason to believe those weeks might be unkind to the film. Let’s get into those reasons, shall we?

Not that it always matters but, for reasons we’ll explore a little deeper in a moment, critical reactions seem to be more important than ever for the MCU. With that, the reviews for “Captain America: Brave New World” cannot be ignored. As of this writing, the film holds a 50% critical approval rating on Rotten Tomatoes. /Film’s Jeremy Mathai, in his own review of “Brave New World,” called it a “safe, forgettable rehash.”

On the movie side, only two other MCU entries have ever received a “rotten” grade from the site, with “Eternals” (47%) and “Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania” (46%) also holding that distinction. That’s not great company to be in, so far as commercial prospects are concerned. “Eternals” finished its run with just over $400 million worldwide, while “Quantumania” brought in $476 million globally, which was just barely enough to make it profitable. That gives us some idea of where Marvel’s latest might land when all’s said and done.

Even on the very high end, if absolutely everything goes right, with an opening weekend below $90 million, the ceiling is in “Doctor Strange” territory ($677 million worldwide). We’re pretty far from everything going right, though, so “Brave New World” is probably going to earn closer to $500 million than $700 million.

As is always the case, audiences are the bigger determining factor when it comes to crafting a hit. Critics didn’t like “Venom,” but viewers loved it, so it took off like a rocket. Marvel, unfortunately, doesn’t appear to be getting much help from general moviegoers here. “Brave New World” scored a B- on CinemaScore, which is the lowest in the history of the MCU. CinemaScore polls actual moviegoers leaving theaters and is one of the best indicators we have as to how people feel about a given movie. So that’s not great, to say the least.

On Rotten Tomatoes, however, “Brave New World” holds an 80% audience rating. That’s certainly better than the critical rating, but it’s on the low side for Marvel Studios as well, tied with “The Marvels” (which finished as the lowest-grossing MCU movie ever, taking in just shy of $200 million worldwide). Yes, there are pre-pandemic MCU movies like “Ant-Man and the Wasp” and “Iron Man 3” that scored lower on the audience side on Rotten Tomatoes, but that was when this franchise seemingly couldn’t miss. In the world we live in now, the bar for getting someone to get off the couch has been raised. The die-hards will still show up on opening weekend, but getting others to show up in the weeks that follow is extra challenging.

The fact of the matter is that the MCU is not the must-see cultural powerhouse that it once was. The Marvel name can be very helpful, but it only guarantees success up to a certain point. Marvel’s good name certainly helped the much-maligned “Morbius” out of the gate, but then that movie fell off a cliff. Something similar happened with “Eternals,” though its fate wasn’t quite as grim. That one is more of a mixed bag, especially when grading on a COVID-19 curve.

In any event, “Brave New World” is going to test how far Marvel’s name can take it. Sure, it’s got a big star in Harrison Ford taking over as Thunderbolt Ross, but is that enough to help prevent a major drop in the coming weeks? Against a $180 million budget, which doesn’t account for marketing, this movie probably needs to make close to $550 million worldwide to break even. If true word-of-mouth from casual moviegoers is soft, that’s going to be a tough number to get to.

It doesn’t help that audiences are less invested in Sam Wilson’s Captain America than they were in Steve Rogers, who was played by Chris Evans for nearly a decade before he retired following the events of “Avengers: Endgame.” To change that, this really needed to be a “must-see” film with palpable buzz. Thus far, the reactions to “Brave New World” have largely labeled it as “fine.” That may not be enough.

Another important factor to consider is that “Captain America: Brave New World” is going to have competition on the horizon. In North America, Oz Perkins’ much-anticipated “The Monkey” hits theaters this upcoming weekend. Is that horror flick going to challenge Marvel’s latest for the crown? Probably not. But it’s just part of the equation. Don’t forget, “Paddington in Peru” scored high marks with audiences and could end up having long legs. Plus, things will get far more competitive in March with the arrival of stuff like “Mickey 17” and “Snow White.”

More importantly, overseas audiences are hugely important to this movie’s success. In China, the massive blockbuster “Ne-Zha 2” has dominated the conversation, pulling in $1 billion in record time. That film cast a shadow over “Brave New World” in the country, where Marvel’s latest made just $10.5 million in its debut. For contrast, “Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3” ($845 million worldwide) made $27.5 million there on its opening weekend in 2023. That’s just one market, but if some of these other movies cut into Marvel’s slice of the pie in other countries as well, it’s easy to see how that break-even number gets harder and harder to reach. MCU films like “Brave New World” are tremendously expensive and require a robust global audience to ensure they make sense financially.

It’s been true for some time now, but at moments like this, it bears repeating: the age of presumed dominance when it comes to superhero movies is good and truly over. This has been firmly true, even for Marvel, since 2023, back when “Quantumania” and “The Marvels” both majorly disappointed in theaters. That same year, DC also suffered massive fails with “Shazam! Fury of the Gods,” “Blue Beetle,” and “The Flash.” The common denominator is that these movies were met with a lack of enthusiasm. That’s not to say people didn’t enjoy them, but there wasn’t that palpable, enthusiastic chatter.

On the flip side, 2024’s “Deadpool & Wolverine” became a $1.3 billion hit precisely by generating that must-see buzz. Audiences loved finally seeing Deadpool and Wolverine truly get to unite for a buddy movie. That was a big hook that Marvel delivered on. “Brave New World,” on the other hand, is being met with a reception that boils down to “It’s fine.” In 2025, that’s not usually going to be enough to get the job done.

Does that mean this movie is ultimately going to flop? Not necessarily. But the deck is stacked against it based on the evidence before us from recent years. The MCU can no longer rest on its laurels. It has to truly deliver the goods, or this all becomes precarious.

“Captain America: Brave New World” is in theaters now.